Geographic Convergence Detection

Multi-event clustering analysis that detects when independent data streams converge on the same geographic area, providing early warning of significant events.

One of the most valuable intelligence signals is when multiple independent data streams converge on the same geographic area. This often precedes significant events.

How It Works

The system maintains a real-time grid of geographic cells (1° x 1° resolution). Each cell tracks four event types:

Event Type	Source	Detection Method
Protests	ACLED/GDELT	Direct geolocation
Military Flights	OpenSky	ADS-B position
Naval Vessels	AIS stream	Ship position
Earthquakes	USGS	Epicenter location

When 3 or more different event types occur within the same cell during a 24-hour window, a convergence alert is generated.

Convergence Scoring

type_score = event_types × 25      # Max 100 (4 types)
count_boost = min(25, total_events × 2)
convergence_score = min(100, type_score + count_boost)

Alert Thresholds

Types Converging	Score Range	Alert Level
4 types	80-100	Critical
3 types	60-80	High
3 types (low count)	40-60	Medium

Example Scenarios

Taiwan Strait Buildup

• Cell: 25°N, 121°E
• Events: Military flights (3), Naval vessels (2), Protests (1)
• Score: 75 + 12 = 87 (Critical)
• Signal: “Geographic Convergence (3 types) - military flights, naval vessels, protests”

Middle East Flashpoint

• Cell: 32°N, 35°E
• Events: Military flights (5), Protests (8), Earthquake (1)
• Score: 75 + 25 = 100 (Critical)
• Signal: Multiple activity streams converging on region

Why This Matters

Individual data points are often noise. But when protests break out, military assets reposition, and seismic monitors detect anomalies in the same location simultaneously, it warrants attention, regardless of whether any single source is reporting a crisis.