Infrastructure Cascade Analysis

Dependency graph modeling for critical infrastructure and undersea cable monitoring, visualizing how disruptions cascade across countries and systems.

Critical infrastructure is interdependent. A cable cut doesn’t just affect connectivity; it creates cascading effects across dependent countries and systems. The cascade analysis and cable monitoring systems visualize these dependencies and provide early warning of disruptions.

Dependency Graph

The system builds a graph of 350 infrastructure nodes and dependency edges:

Node Type	Count	Examples
Undersea Cables	86	MAREA, FLAG Europe-Asia, SEA-ME-WE 6
Pipelines	88	Nord Stream, Trans-Siberian, Keystone
Ports	62	Singapore, Rotterdam, Shenzhen
Chokepoints	9	Suez, Hormuz, Malacca, Gibraltar, Bosphorus, Dardanelles
Countries	105	End nodes representing national impact

Cascade Calculation

When a user selects an infrastructure asset for analysis, a breadth-first cascade propagates through the graph:

1. Start at source node (e.g., "cable:marea")
2. For each dependent node:
   impact = edge_strength × disruption_level × (1 - redundancy)
3. Categorize impact:
   - Critical: impact > 0.8
   - High: impact > 0.5
   - Medium: impact > 0.2
   - Low: impact ≤ 0.2
4. Recurse to depth 3 (prevent infinite loops)

Redundancy Modeling

The system accounts for alternative routes:

• Cables with high redundancy show reduced impact
• Countries with multiple cable landings show lower vulnerability
• Alternative routes are displayed with capacity percentages

Example Analysis

MAREA Cable Disruption:

Source: MAREA (US ↔ Spain, 200 Tbps)
Countries Affected: 4
- Spain: Medium (redundancy via other Atlantic cables)
- Portugal: Low (secondary landing)
- France: Low (alternative routes via UK)
- US: Low (high redundancy)
Alternative Routes: TAT-14 (35%), Hibernia (22%), AEConnect (18%)

FLAG Europe-Asia Disruption:

Source: FLAG Europe-Asia (UK ↔ Japan)
Countries Affected: 7
- India: Medium (major capacity share)
- UAE, Saudi Arabia: Medium (limited alternatives)
- UK, Japan: Low (high redundancy)
Alternative Routes: SEA-ME-WE 6 (11%), 2Africa (8%), Falcon (8%)

Use Cases

• Pre-positioning: Understand which countries are most vulnerable to specific infrastructure failures
• Risk Assessment: Evaluate supply chain exposure to chokepoint disruptions
• Incident Response: Quickly identify downstream effects of reported cable cuts or pipeline damage

Undersea Cable Activity Monitoring

The dashboard monitors real-time cable operations and advisories from official maritime warning systems, providing early warning of potential connectivity disruptions.

Data Sources

Source	Coverage	Data Type
NGA Warnings	Global	NAVAREA maritime warnings
Cable Operators	Route-specific	Maintenance advisories

How It Works

The system parses NGA (National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency) maritime warnings for cable-related activity:

1. Keyword filtering: Warnings containing “CABLE”, “CABLESHIP”, “SUBMARINE CABLE”, “FIBER OPTIC” are extracted
2. Coordinate parsing: DMS and decimal coordinates are extracted from warning text
3. Cable matching: Coordinates are matched to nearest cable routes within 5° radius
4. Severity classification: Keywords like “FAULT”, “BREAK”, “DAMAGE” indicate faults; others indicate maintenance

Alert Types

Type	Trigger	Map Display
Cable Advisory	Any cable-related NAVAREA warning	Yellow marker at location
Repair Ship	Cableship name detected in warning	Ship icon with status

Repair Ship Tracking

When a cableship is mentioned in warnings, the system extracts:

• Vessel name: CS Reliance, Cable Innovator, etc.
• Status: “En route” or “On station”
• Location: Current working area
• Associated cable: Nearest cable route

This enables monitoring of ongoing repair operations before official carrier announcements.

Why This Matters

Undersea cables carry 95% of intercontinental data traffic. A cable cut can:

• Cause regional internet outages
• Disrupt financial transactions
• Impact military communications
• Create economic cascading effects

Early visibility into cable operations, even maintenance windows, provides advance warning for contingency planning.